Stock Analysis on Net
Stock Analysis on Net

Visa Inc. (NYSE:V)

Modelo de valoración de activos de capital (CAPM) 

Microsoft Excel

El modelo de fijación de precios de activos de capital (CAPM) indica cuál debería ser la tasa de rendimiento esperada o requerida sobre activos de riesgo como las acciones ordinarias de Visa.

Tasas de retorno

Visa Inc., tasas mensuales de retorno

Microsoft Excel
Visa Inc. (V) Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500)
t Fecha PrecioV,t1 DividendoV,t1 RV,t2 PrecioS&P 500,t RS&P 500,t3
31 oct. 2016 $82.51 2,126.15
1. 30 nov. 2016 $77.32 $0.165 -6.09% 2,198.81 3.42%
2. 31 dic. 2016 $78.02 0.91% 2,238.83 1.82%
3. 31 ene. 2017 $82.71 6.01% 2,278.87 1.79%
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
70. 31 ago. 2022 $198.71 $0.375 -6.14% 3,955.00 -4.24%
71. 30 sept. 2022 $177.65 -10.60% 3,585.62 -9.34%
Promedio (R): 1.33% 0.85%
Desviación estándar: 6.20% 4.82%
Visa Inc. (V) Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500)
t Fecha PrecioV,t1 DividendoV,t1 RV,t2 PrecioS&P 500,t RS&P 500,t3
31 oct. 2016 $82.51 2,126.15
1. 30 nov. 2016 $77.32 $0.165 -6.09% 2,198.81 3.42%
2. 31 dic. 2016 $78.02 0.91% 2,238.83 1.82%
3. 31 ene. 2017 $82.71 6.01% 2,278.87 1.79%
4. 28 feb. 2017 $87.94 $0.165 6.52% 2,363.64 3.72%
5. 31 mar. 2017 $88.87 1.06% 2,362.72 -0.04%
6. 30 abr. 2017 $91.22 2.64% 2,384.20 0.91%
7. 31 may. 2017 $95.23 $0.165 4.58% 2,411.80 1.16%
8. 30 jun. 2017 $93.78 -1.52% 2,423.41 0.48%
9. 31 jul. 2017 $99.56 6.16% 2,470.30 1.93%
10. 31 ago. 2017 $103.52 $0.165 4.14% 2,471.65 0.05%
11. 30 sept. 2017 $105.24 1.66% 2,519.36 1.93%
12. 31 oct. 2017 $109.98 4.50% 2,575.26 2.22%
13. 30 nov. 2017 $112.59 $0.195 2.55% 2,647.58 2.81%
14. 31 dic. 2017 $114.02 1.27% 2,673.61 0.98%
15. 31 ene. 2018 $124.23 8.95% 2,823.81 5.62%
16. 28 feb. 2018 $122.94 $0.21 -0.87% 2,713.83 -3.89%
17. 31 mar. 2018 $119.62 -2.70% 2,640.87 -2.69%
18. 30 abr. 2018 $126.88 6.07% 2,648.05 0.27%
19. 31 may. 2018 $130.72 $0.21 3.19% 2,705.27 2.16%
20. 30 jun. 2018 $132.45 1.32% 2,718.37 0.48%
21. 31 jul. 2018 $136.74 3.24% 2,816.29 3.60%
22. 31 ago. 2018 $146.89 $0.21 7.58% 2,901.52 3.03%
23. 30 sept. 2018 $150.09 2.18% 2,913.98 0.43%
24. 31 oct. 2018 $137.85 -8.16% 2,711.74 -6.94%
25. 30 nov. 2018 $141.71 $0.25 2.98% 2,760.17 1.79%
26. 31 dic. 2018 $131.94 -6.89% 2,506.85 -9.18%
27. 31 ene. 2019 $135.01 2.33% 2,704.10 7.87%
28. 28 feb. 2019 $148.12 $0.25 9.90% 2,784.49 2.97%
29. 31 mar. 2019 $156.19 5.45% 2,834.40 1.79%
30. 30 abr. 2019 $164.43 5.28% 2,945.83 3.93%
31. 31 may. 2019 $161.33 $0.25 -1.73% 2,752.06 -6.58%
32. 30 jun. 2019 $173.55 7.57% 2,941.76 6.89%
33. 31 jul. 2019 $178.00 2.56% 2,980.38 1.31%
34. 31 ago. 2019 $180.82 $0.25 1.72% 2,926.46 -1.81%
35. 30 sept. 2019 $172.01 -4.87% 2,976.74 1.72%
36. 31 oct. 2019 $178.86 3.98% 3,037.56 2.04%
37. 30 nov. 2019 $184.51 $0.30 3.33% 3,140.98 3.40%
38. 31 dic. 2019 $187.90 1.84% 3,230.78 2.86%
39. 31 ene. 2020 $198.97 5.89% 3,225.52 -0.16%
40. 29 feb. 2020 $181.76 $0.30 -8.50% 2,954.22 -8.41%
41. 31 mar. 2020 $161.12 -11.36% 2,584.59 -12.51%
42. 30 abr. 2020 $178.72 10.92% 2,912.43 12.68%
43. 31 may. 2020 $195.24 $0.30 9.41% 3,044.31 4.53%
44. 30 jun. 2020 $193.17 -1.06% 3,100.29 1.84%
45. 31 jul. 2020 $190.40 -1.43% 3,271.12 5.51%
46. 31 ago. 2020 $211.99 $0.30 11.50% 3,500.31 7.01%
47. 30 sept. 2020 $199.97 -5.67% 3,363.00 -3.92%
48. 31 oct. 2020 $181.71 -9.13% 3,269.96 -2.77%
49. 30 nov. 2020 $210.35 $0.32 15.94% 3,621.63 10.75%
50. 31 dic. 2020 $218.73 3.98% 3,756.07 3.71%
51. 31 ene. 2021 $193.25 -11.65% 3,714.24 -1.11%
52. 28 feb. 2021 $212.39 $0.32 10.07% 3,811.15 2.61%
53. 31 mar. 2021 $211.73 -0.31% 3,972.89 4.24%
54. 30 abr. 2021 $233.56 10.31% 4,181.17 5.24%
55. 31 may. 2021 $227.30 $0.32 -2.54% 4,204.11 0.55%
56. 30 jun. 2021 $233.82 2.87% 4,297.50 2.22%
57. 31 jul. 2021 $246.39 5.38% 4,395.26 2.27%
58. 31 ago. 2021 $229.10 $0.32 -6.89% 4,522.68 2.90%
59. 30 sept. 2021 $222.75 -2.77% 4,307.54 -4.76%
60. 31 oct. 2021 $211.77 -4.93% 4,605.38 6.91%
61. 30 nov. 2021 $193.77 $0.375 -8.32% 4,567.00 -0.83%
62. 31 dic. 2021 $216.71 11.84% 4,766.18 4.36%
63. 31 ene. 2022 $226.17 4.37% 4,515.55 -5.26%
64. 28 feb. 2022 $216.12 $0.375 -4.28% 4,373.94 -3.14%
65. 31 mar. 2022 $221.77 2.61% 4,530.41 3.58%
66. 30 abr. 2022 $213.13 -3.90% 4,131.93 -8.80%
67. 31 may. 2022 $212.17 $0.375 -0.27% 4,132.15 0.01%
68. 30 jun. 2022 $196.89 -7.20% 3,785.38 -8.39%
69. 31 jul. 2022 $212.11 7.73% 4,130.29 9.11%
70. 31 ago. 2022 $198.71 $0.375 -6.14% 3,955.00 -4.24%
71. 30 sept. 2022 $177.65 -10.60% 3,585.62 -9.34%
Promedio (R): 1.33% 0.85%
Desviación estándar: 6.20% 4.82%

Mostrar todo

1 Datos en US$ por acción ordinaria, ajustados por divisiones y dividendos de acciones.

2 Tasa de rendimiento de las acciones ordinarias de V durante el período t.

3 Tasa de rendimiento del S&P 500 (el proxy de la cartera de mercado) durante el período t.

Varianza y covarianza

Visa Inc., cálculo de la varianza y covarianza de los rendimientos

Microsoft Excel
t Fecha RV,t RS&P 500,t (RV,t–RV)2 (RS&P 500,t–RS&P 500)2 (RV,t–RV)×(RS&P 500,t–RS&P 500)
1. 30 nov. 2016 -6.09% 3.42% 55.08 6.57 -19.02
2. 31 dic. 2016 0.91% 1.82% 0.18 0.93 -0.41
3. 31 ene. 2017 6.01% 1.79% 21.90 0.87 4.37
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
70. 31 ago. 2022 -6.14% -4.24% 55.83 25.99 38.10
71. 30 sept. 2022 -10.60% -9.34% 142.31 103.92 121.61
Total (Σ): 2,687.47 1,625.64 1,480.15
t Fecha RV,t RS&P 500,t (RV,t–RV)2 (RS&P 500,t–RS&P 500)2 (RV,t–RV)×(RS&P 500,t–RS&P 500)
1. 30 nov. 2016 -6.09% 3.42% 55.08 6.57 -19.02
2. 31 dic. 2016 0.91% 1.82% 0.18 0.93 -0.41
3. 31 ene. 2017 6.01% 1.79% 21.90 0.87 4.37
4. 28 feb. 2017 6.52% 3.72% 26.95 8.21 14.88
5. 31 mar. 2017 1.06% -0.04% 0.07 0.80 0.24
6. 30 abr. 2017 2.64% 0.91% 1.72 0.00 0.07
7. 31 may. 2017 4.58% 1.16% 10.53 0.09 0.98
8. 30 jun. 2017 -1.52% 0.48% 8.14 0.14 1.06
9. 31 jul. 2017 6.16% 1.93% 23.35 1.17 5.22
10. 31 ago. 2017 4.14% 0.05% 7.91 0.64 -2.25
11. 30 sept. 2017 1.66% 1.93% 0.11 1.16 0.36
12. 31 oct. 2017 4.50% 2.22% 10.07 1.86 4.33
13. 30 nov. 2017 2.55% 2.81% 1.49 3.82 2.38
14. 31 dic. 2017 1.27% 0.98% 0.00 0.02 -0.01
15. 31 ene. 2018 8.95% 5.62% 58.12 22.69 36.31
16. 28 feb. 2018 -0.87% -3.89% 4.84 22.56 10.45
17. 31 mar. 2018 -2.70% -2.69% 16.25 12.55 14.28
18. 30 abr. 2018 6.07% 0.27% 22.45 0.34 -2.76
19. 31 may. 2018 3.19% 2.16% 3.46 1.71 2.43
20. 30 jun. 2018 1.32% 0.48% 0.00 0.14 0.00
21. 31 jul. 2018 3.24% 3.60% 3.64 7.55 5.24
22. 31 ago. 2018 7.58% 3.03% 39.00 4.72 13.56
23. 30 sept. 2018 2.18% 0.43% 0.72 0.18 -0.36
24. 31 oct. 2018 -8.16% -6.94% 89.99 60.76 73.94
25. 30 nov. 2018 2.98% 1.79% 2.72 0.87 1.54
26. 31 dic. 2018 -6.89% -9.18% 67.66 100.65 82.52
27. 31 ene. 2019 2.33% 7.87% 0.99 49.20 6.98
28. 28 feb. 2019 9.90% 2.97% 73.35 4.49 18.14
29. 31 mar. 2019 5.45% 1.79% 16.95 0.88 3.86
30. 30 abr. 2019 5.28% 3.93% 15.56 9.47 12.14
31. 31 may. 2019 -1.73% -6.58% 9.39 55.24 22.78
32. 30 jun. 2019 7.57% 6.89% 38.98 36.46 37.70
33. 31 jul. 2019 2.56% 1.31% 1.52 0.21 0.57
34. 31 ago. 2019 1.72% -1.81% 0.15 7.10 -1.05
35. 30 sept. 2019 -4.87% 1.72% 38.48 0.75 -5.36
36. 31 oct. 2019 3.98% 2.04% 7.03 1.41 3.15
37. 30 nov. 2019 3.33% 3.40% 3.98 6.50 5.09
38. 31 dic. 2019 1.84% 2.86% 0.26 4.02 1.01
39. 31 ene. 2020 5.89% -0.16% 20.80 1.03 -4.64
40. 29 feb. 2020 -8.50% -8.41% 96.63 85.85 91.08
41. 31 mar. 2020 -11.36% -12.51% 160.95 178.66 169.58
42. 30 abr. 2020 10.92% 12.68% 92.01 139.95 113.48
43. 31 may. 2020 9.41% 4.53% 65.29 13.50 29.68
44. 30 jun. 2020 -1.06% 1.84% 5.72 0.97 -2.35
45. 31 jul. 2020 -1.43% 5.51% 7.65 21.67 -12.87
46. 31 ago. 2020 11.50% 7.01% 103.34 37.85 62.54
47. 30 sept. 2020 -5.67% -3.92% 49.02 22.82 33.45
48. 31 oct. 2020 -9.13% -2.77% 109.46 13.11 37.89
49. 30 nov. 2020 15.94% 10.75% 213.35 98.01 144.60
50. 31 dic. 2020 3.98% 3.71% 7.04 8.17 7.58
51. 31 ene. 2021 -11.65% -1.11% 168.48 3.87 25.55
52. 28 feb. 2021 10.07% 2.61% 76.37 3.08 15.33
53. 31 mar. 2021 -0.31% 4.24% 2.70 11.49 -5.56
54. 30 abr. 2021 10.31% 5.24% 80.63 19.25 39.40
55. 31 may. 2021 -2.54% 0.55% 15.01 0.09 1.19
56. 30 jun. 2021 2.87% 2.22% 2.36 1.87 2.10
57. 31 jul. 2021 5.38% 2.27% 16.36 2.02 5.74
58. 31 ago. 2021 -6.89% 2.90% 67.54 4.18 -16.80
59. 30 sept. 2021 -2.77% -4.76% 16.83 31.49 23.02
60. 31 oct. 2021 -4.93% 6.91% 39.19 36.72 -37.94
61. 30 nov. 2021 -8.32% -0.83% 93.20 2.85 16.29
62. 31 dic. 2021 11.84% 4.36% 110.41 12.30 36.85
63. 31 ene. 2022 4.37% -5.26% 9.21 37.37 -18.55
64. 28 feb. 2022 -4.28% -3.14% 31.46 15.92 22.38
65. 31 mar. 2022 2.61% 3.58% 1.65 7.41 3.49
66. 30 abr. 2022 -3.90% -8.80% 27.32 93.13 50.44
67. 31 may. 2022 -0.27% 0.01% 2.58 0.72 1.36
68. 30 jun. 2022 -7.20% -8.39% 72.81 85.50 78.90
69. 31 jul. 2022 7.73% 9.11% 40.95 68.18 52.84
70. 31 ago. 2022 -6.14% -4.24% 55.83 25.99 38.10
71. 30 sept. 2022 -10.60% -9.34% 142.31 103.92 121.61
Total (Σ): 2,687.47 1,625.64 1,480.15

Mostrar todo

VarianzaV = Σ(RV,t–RV)2 ÷ (71 – 1)
= 2,687.47 ÷ (71 – 1)
= 38.39

VarianzaS&P 500 = Σ(RS&P 500,t–RS&P 500)2 ÷ (71 – 1)
= 1,625.64 ÷ (71 – 1)
= 23.22

CovarianzaV, S&P 500 = Σ(RV,t–RV)×(RS&P 500,t–RS&P 500) ÷ (71 – 1)
= 1,480.15 ÷ (71 – 1)
= 21.14

Estimación sistemática del riesgo (β)

Microsoft Excel
VarianzaV 38.39
VarianzaS&P 500 23.22
CovarianzaV, S&P 500 21.14
Coeficiente de correlaciónV, S&P 5001 0.71
βV2 0.91
αV3 0.55%

Cálculos

1 Coeficiente de correlaciónV, S&P 500
= CovarianzaV, S&P 500 ÷ (Desviación estándarV × Desviación estándarS&P 500)
= 21.14 ÷ (6.20% × 4.82%)
= 0.71

2 βV
= CovarianzaV, S&P 500 ÷ VarianzaS&P 500
= 21.14 ÷ 23.22
= 0.91

3 αV
= PromedioV – βV × PromedioS&P 500
= 1.33% – 0.91 × 0.85%
= 0.55%

Tasa de rendimiento esperada

Microsoft Excel
Suposiciones
Tasa de rendimiento de LT Treasury Composite1 RF 3.72%
Tasa de rendimiento esperada en la cartera de mercado2 E(RM) 13.71%
Riesgo sistemático de Visa acciones ordinarias βV 0.91
 
Tasa de rendimiento esperada de las acciones ordinarias de Visa3 E(RV) 12.81%

1 Promedio no ponderado de los rendimientos de las ofertas de todos los bonos del Tesoro de los Estados Unidos de cupón fijo en circulación que no vencen ni se pueden exigir en menos de 10 años (proxy de tasa de rendimiento libre de riesgo).

2 Ver detalles »

3 E(RV) = RF + βV [E(RM) – RF]
= 3.72% + 0.91 [13.71% – 3.72%]
= 12.81%