Stock Analysis on Net

ServiceNow Inc. (NYSE:NOW)

Modelo de fijación de precios de activos de capital (CAPM) 

Microsoft Excel

Tasas de retorno

ServiceNow Inc., tasas mensuales de retorno

Microsoft Excel
ServiceNow Inc. (NOW) Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500)
t Fecha PrecioNOW,t1 DividendoNOW,t1 RNOW,t2 PrecioS&P 500,t RS&P 500,t3
31 ene. 2017 $90.62 2,278.87
1. 28 feb. 2017 $86.92 -4.08% 2,363.64 3.72%
2. 31 mar. 2017 $87.47 0.63% 2,362.72 -0.04%
3. 30 abr. 2017 $94.48 8.01% 2,384.20 0.91%
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
58. 30 nov. 2021 $647.70 -7.17% 4,567.00 -0.83%
59. 31 dic. 2021 $649.11 0.22% 4,766.18 4.36%
Promedio (R): 3.65% 1.36%
Desviación estándar: 7.50% 4.48%
ServiceNow Inc. (NOW) Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500)
t Fecha PrecioNOW,t1 DividendoNOW,t1 RNOW,t2 PrecioS&P 500,t RS&P 500,t3
31 ene. 2017 $90.62 2,278.87
1. 28 feb. 2017 $86.92 -4.08% 2,363.64 3.72%
2. 31 mar. 2017 $87.47 0.63% 2,362.72 -0.04%
3. 30 abr. 2017 $94.48 8.01% 2,384.20 0.91%
4. 31 may. 2017 $104.65 10.76% 2,411.80 1.16%
5. 30 jun. 2017 $106.00 1.29% 2,423.41 0.48%
6. 31 jul. 2017 $110.45 4.20% 2,470.30 1.93%
7. 31 ago. 2017 $116.19 5.20% 2,471.65 0.05%
8. 30 sept. 2017 $117.53 1.15% 2,519.36 1.93%
9. 31 oct. 2017 $126.37 7.52% 2,575.26 2.22%
10. 30 nov. 2017 $123.00 -2.67% 2,647.58 2.81%
11. 31 dic. 2017 $130.39 6.01% 2,673.61 0.98%
12. 31 ene. 2018 $148.87 14.17% 2,823.81 5.62%
13. 28 feb. 2018 $161.01 8.15% 2,713.83 -3.89%
14. 31 mar. 2018 $165.45 2.76% 2,640.87 -2.69%
15. 30 abr. 2018 $166.14 0.42% 2,648.05 0.27%
16. 31 may. 2018 $177.61 6.90% 2,705.27 2.16%
17. 30 jun. 2018 $172.47 -2.89% 2,718.37 0.48%
18. 31 jul. 2018 $175.96 2.02% 2,816.29 3.60%
19. 31 ago. 2018 $196.36 11.59% 2,901.52 3.03%
20. 30 sept. 2018 $195.63 -0.37% 2,913.98 0.43%
21. 31 oct. 2018 $181.04 -7.46% 2,711.74 -6.94%
22. 30 nov. 2018 $185.27 2.34% 2,760.17 1.79%
23. 31 dic. 2018 $178.05 -3.90% 2,506.85 -9.18%
24. 31 ene. 2019 $220.02 23.57% 2,704.10 7.87%
25. 28 feb. 2019 $239.44 8.83% 2,784.49 2.97%
26. 31 mar. 2019 $246.49 2.94% 2,834.40 1.79%
27. 30 abr. 2019 $271.51 10.15% 2,945.83 3.93%
28. 31 may. 2019 $261.93 -3.53% 2,752.06 -6.58%
29. 30 jun. 2019 $274.57 4.83% 2,941.76 6.89%
30. 31 jul. 2019 $277.39 1.03% 2,980.38 1.31%
31. 31 ago. 2019 $261.84 -5.61% 2,926.46 -1.81%
32. 30 sept. 2019 $253.85 -3.05% 2,976.74 1.72%
33. 31 oct. 2019 $247.26 -2.60% 3,037.56 2.04%
34. 30 nov. 2019 $283.04 14.47% 3,140.98 3.40%
35. 31 dic. 2019 $282.32 -0.25% 3,230.78 2.86%
36. 31 ene. 2020 $338.23 19.80% 3,225.52 -0.16%
37. 29 feb. 2020 $326.09 -3.59% 2,954.22 -8.41%
38. 31 mar. 2020 $286.58 -12.12% 2,584.59 -12.51%
39. 30 abr. 2020 $351.54 22.67% 2,912.43 12.68%
40. 31 may. 2020 $387.93 10.35% 3,044.31 4.53%
41. 30 jun. 2020 $405.06 4.42% 3,100.29 1.84%
42. 31 jul. 2020 $439.20 8.43% 3,271.12 5.51%
43. 31 ago. 2020 $482.02 9.75% 3,500.31 7.01%
44. 30 sept. 2020 $485.00 0.62% 3,363.00 -3.92%
45. 31 oct. 2020 $497.57 2.59% 3,269.96 -2.77%
46. 30 nov. 2020 $534.55 7.43% 3,621.63 10.75%
47. 31 dic. 2020 $550.43 2.97% 3,756.07 3.71%
48. 31 ene. 2021 $543.16 -1.32% 3,714.24 -1.11%
49. 28 feb. 2021 $533.46 -1.79% 3,811.15 2.61%
50. 31 mar. 2021 $500.11 -6.25% 3,972.89 4.24%
51. 30 abr. 2021 $506.37 1.25% 4,181.17 5.24%
52. 31 may. 2021 $473.88 -6.42% 4,204.11 0.55%
53. 30 jun. 2021 $549.55 15.97% 4,297.50 2.22%
54. 31 jul. 2021 $587.89 6.98% 4,395.26 2.27%
55. 31 ago. 2021 $643.64 9.48% 4,522.68 2.90%
56. 30 sept. 2021 $622.27 -3.32% 4,307.54 -4.76%
57. 31 oct. 2021 $697.76 12.13% 4,605.38 6.91%
58. 30 nov. 2021 $647.70 -7.17% 4,567.00 -0.83%
59. 31 dic. 2021 $649.11 0.22% 4,766.18 4.36%
Promedio (R): 3.65% 1.36%
Desviación estándar: 7.50% 4.48%

Mostrar todo

1 Datos en US$ por acción de acciones ordinarias, ajustados por escisiones y dividendos de acciones.

2 Tasa de rendimiento de las acciones ordinarias de NOW durante el período t.

3 Tasa de rendimiento del S&P 500 (el proxy de la cartera de mercado) durante el período t.


Varianza y covarianza

ServiceNow Inc., cálculo de varianza y covarianza de rendimientos

Microsoft Excel
t Fecha RNOW,t RS&P 500,t (RNOW,tRNOW)2 (RS&P 500,tRS&P 500)2 (RNOW,tRNOW)×(RS&P 500,tRS&P 500)
1. 28 feb. 2017 -4.08% 3.72% 59.87 5.58 -18.28
2. 31 mar. 2017 0.63% -0.04% 9.13 1.95 4.22
3. 30 abr. 2017 8.01% 0.91% 19.00 0.20 -1.96
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
58. 30 nov. 2021 -7.17% -0.83% 117.27 4.80 23.73
59. 31 dic. 2021 0.22% 4.36% 11.81 9.02 -10.32
Total (Σ): 3,261.20 1,164.17 1,164.88
t Fecha RNOW,t RS&P 500,t (RNOW,tRNOW)2 (RS&P 500,tRS&P 500)2 (RNOW,tRNOW)×(RS&P 500,tRS&P 500)
1. 28 feb. 2017 -4.08% 3.72% 59.87 5.58 -18.28
2. 31 mar. 2017 0.63% -0.04% 9.13 1.95 4.22
3. 30 abr. 2017 8.01% 0.91% 19.00 0.20 -1.96
4. 31 may. 2017 10.76% 1.16% 50.54 0.04 -1.42
5. 30 jun. 2017 1.29% 0.48% 5.59 0.77 2.07
6. 31 jul. 2017 4.20% 1.93% 0.30 0.33 0.31
7. 31 ago. 2017 5.20% 0.05% 2.38 1.70 -2.01
8. 30 sept. 2017 1.15% 1.93% 6.26 0.33 -1.43
9. 31 oct. 2017 7.52% 2.22% 14.95 0.74 3.33
10. 30 nov. 2017 -2.67% 2.81% 39.96 2.10 -9.17
11. 31 dic. 2017 6.01% 0.98% 5.54 0.14 -0.88
12. 31 ene. 2018 14.17% 5.62% 110.63 18.15 44.81
13. 28 feb. 2018 8.15% -3.89% 20.25 27.59 -23.64
14. 31 mar. 2018 2.76% -2.69% 0.80 16.37 3.63
15. 30 abr. 2018 0.42% 0.27% 10.48 1.18 3.52
16. 31 may. 2018 6.90% 2.16% 10.56 0.64 2.61
17. 30 jun. 2018 -2.89% 0.48% 42.89 0.76 5.72
18. 31 jul. 2018 2.02% 3.60% 2.66 5.04 -3.66
19. 31 ago. 2018 11.59% 3.03% 63.02 2.78 13.25
20. 30 sept. 2018 -0.37% 0.43% 16.21 0.86 3.74
21. 31 oct. 2018 -7.46% -6.94% 123.49 68.86 92.22
22. 30 nov. 2018 2.34% 1.79% 1.74 0.18 -0.56
23. 31 dic. 2018 -3.90% -9.18% 57.03 111.00 79.56
24. 31 ene. 2019 23.57% 7.87% 396.70 42.39 129.67
25. 28 feb. 2019 8.83% 2.97% 26.75 2.61 8.35
26. 31 mar. 2019 2.94% 1.79% 0.50 0.19 -0.31
27. 30 abr. 2019 10.15% 3.93% 42.19 6.62 16.72
28. 31 may. 2019 -3.53% -6.58% 51.60 62.97 57.00
29. 30 jun. 2019 4.83% 6.89% 1.37 30.64 6.48
30. 31 jul. 2019 1.03% 1.31% 6.90 0.00 0.12
31. 31 ago. 2019 -5.61% -1.81% 85.76 10.03 29.33
32. 30 sept. 2019 -3.05% 1.72% 44.97 0.13 -2.42
33. 31 oct. 2019 -2.60% 2.04% 39.07 0.47 -4.28
34. 30 nov. 2019 14.47% 3.40% 116.98 4.19 22.14
35. 31 dic. 2019 -0.25% 2.86% 15.28 2.25 -5.87
36. 31 ene. 2020 19.80% -0.16% 260.79 2.31 -24.56
37. 29 feb. 2020 -3.59% -8.41% 52.48 95.43 70.77
38. 31 mar. 2020 -12.12% -12.51% 248.73 192.37 218.74
39. 30 abr. 2020 22.67% 12.68% 361.48 128.29 215.35
40. 31 may. 2020 10.35% 4.53% 44.85 10.05 21.23
41. 30 jun. 2020 4.42% 1.84% 0.58 0.23 0.37
42. 31 jul. 2020 8.43% 5.51% 22.79 17.24 19.82
43. 31 ago. 2020 9.75% 7.01% 37.15 31.91 34.43
44. 30 sept. 2020 0.62% -3.92% 9.22 27.89 16.04
45. 31 oct. 2020 2.59% -2.77% 1.13 17.01 4.38
46. 30 nov. 2020 7.43% 10.75% 14.27 88.30 35.49
47. 31 dic. 2020 2.97% 3.71% 0.47 5.54 -1.61
48. 31 ene. 2021 -1.32% -1.11% 24.76 6.11 12.30
49. 28 feb. 2021 -1.79% 2.61% 29.60 1.57 -6.81
50. 31 mar. 2021 -6.25% 4.24% 98.14 8.33 -28.59
51. 30 abr. 2021 1.25% 5.24% 5.77 15.09 -9.33
52. 31 may. 2021 -6.42% 0.55% 101.43 0.65 8.15
53. 30 jun. 2021 15.97% 2.22% 151.62 0.75 10.63
54. 31 jul. 2021 6.98% 2.27% 11.03 0.84 3.05
55. 31 ago. 2021 9.48% 2.90% 33.97 2.38 8.98
56. 30 sept. 2021 -3.32% -4.76% 48.65 37.39 42.65
57. 31 oct. 2021 12.13% 6.91% 71.85 30.87 47.10
58. 30 nov. 2021 -7.17% -0.83% 117.27 4.80 23.73
59. 31 dic. 2021 0.22% 4.36% 11.81 9.02 -10.32
Total (Σ): 3,261.20 1,164.17 1,164.88

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VarianzaNOW = Σ(RNOW,tRNOW)2 ÷ (59 – 1)
= 3,261.20 ÷ (59 – 1)
= 56.23

VarianzaS&P 500 = Σ(RS&P 500,tRS&P 500)2 ÷ (59 – 1)
= 1,164.17 ÷ (59 – 1)
= 20.07

CovarianzaNOW, S&P 500 = Σ(RNOW,tRNOW)×(RS&P 500,tRS&P 500) ÷ (59 – 1)
= 1,164.88 ÷ (59 – 1)
= 20.08


Estimación sistemática del riesgo (β)

Microsoft Excel
VarianzaNOW 56.23
VarianzaS&P 500 20.07
CovarianzaNOW, S&P 500 20.08
Coeficiente de correlaciónNOW, S&P 5001 0.60
βNOW2 1.00
αNOW3 2.30%

Cálculos

1 Coeficiente de correlaciónNOW, S&P 500
= CovarianzaNOW, S&P 500 ÷ (Desviación estándarNOW × Desviación estándarS&P 500)
= 20.08 ÷ (7.50% × 4.48%)
= 0.60

2 βNOW
= CovarianzaNOW, S&P 500 ÷ VarianzaS&P 500
= 20.08 ÷ 20.07
= 1.00

3 αNOW
= PromedioNOW – βNOW × PromedioS&P 500
= 3.65%1.00 × 1.36%
= 2.30%


Tasa de rendimiento esperada

Microsoft Excel
Suposiciones
Tasa de rendimiento de LT Treasury Composite1 RF 3.83%
Tasa de rendimiento esperada de la cartera de mercado2 E(RM) 12.83%
Riesgo sistemático de acciones ordinarias ServiceNow βNOW 1.00
 
Tasa de rendimiento esperada de las acciones ordinarias de ServiceNow3 E(RNOW) 12.83%

1 Promedio no ponderado de los rendimientos de las ofertas en todos los bonos del Tesoro de los Estados Unidos con cupón fijo pendientes, ni vencidos ni exigibles en menos de 10 años (proxy de tasa de rendimiento libre de riesgo).

2 Ver detalles »

3 E(RNOW) = RF + βNOW [E(RM) – RF]
= 3.83% + 1.00 [12.83%3.83%]
= 12.83%