Modelo de valoración de activos de capital (CAPM)
El modelo de fijación de precios de activos de capital (CAPM) indica cuál debería ser la tasa de rendimiento esperada o requerida sobre activos de riesgo como las acciones ordinarias de Adobe.
Tasas de retorno
Adobe Inc., tasas mensuales de retorno
| Adobe Inc. (ADBE) | Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| t | Fecha | PrecioADBE,t1 | DividendoADBE,t1 | RADBE,t2 | PrecioS&P 500,t | RS&P 500,t3 |
| 31 dic. 2016 | $102.95 | 2,238.83 | ||||
| 1. | 31 ene. 2017 | $113.38 | 10.13% | 2,278.87 | 1.79% | |
| 2. | 28 feb. 2017 | $118.34 | 4.37% | 2,363.64 | 3.72% | |
| 3. | 31 mar. 2017 | $130.13 | 9.96% | 2,362.72 | -0.04% | |
| . | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| . | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| . | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| 70. | 31 oct. 2022 | $318.50 | 15.73% | 3,871.98 | 7.99% | |
| 71. | 30 nov. 2022 | $344.93 | 8.30% | 4,080.11 | 5.38% | |
| Promedio (R): | 2.10% | 0.97% | ||||
| Desviación estándar: | 8.65% | 4.91% | ||||
| Adobe Inc. (ADBE) | Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| t | Fecha | PrecioADBE,t1 | DividendoADBE,t1 | RADBE,t2 | PrecioS&P 500,t | RS&P 500,t3 |
| 31 dic. 2016 | $102.95 | 2,238.83 | ||||
| 1. | 31 ene. 2017 | $113.38 | 10.13% | 2,278.87 | 1.79% | |
| 2. | 28 feb. 2017 | $118.34 | 4.37% | 2,363.64 | 3.72% | |
| 3. | 31 mar. 2017 | $130.13 | 9.96% | 2,362.72 | -0.04% | |
| 4. | 30 abr. 2017 | $133.74 | 2.77% | 2,384.20 | 0.91% | |
| 5. | 31 may. 2017 | $141.86 | 6.07% | 2,411.80 | 1.16% | |
| 6. | 30 jun. 2017 | $141.44 | -0.30% | 2,423.41 | 0.48% | |
| 7. | 31 jul. 2017 | $146.49 | 3.57% | 2,470.30 | 1.93% | |
| 8. | 31 ago. 2017 | $155.16 | 5.92% | 2,471.65 | 0.05% | |
| 9. | 30 sept. 2017 | $149.18 | -3.85% | 2,519.36 | 1.93% | |
| 10. | 31 oct. 2017 | $175.16 | 17.42% | 2,575.26 | 2.22% | |
| 11. | 30 nov. 2017 | $181.47 | 3.60% | 2,647.58 | 2.81% | |
| 12. | 31 dic. 2017 | $175.24 | -3.43% | 2,673.61 | 0.98% | |
| 13. | 31 ene. 2018 | $199.76 | 13.99% | 2,823.81 | 5.62% | |
| 14. | 28 feb. 2018 | $209.13 | 4.69% | 2,713.83 | -3.89% | |
| 15. | 31 mar. 2018 | $216.08 | 3.32% | 2,640.87 | -2.69% | |
| 16. | 30 abr. 2018 | $221.60 | 2.55% | 2,648.05 | 0.27% | |
| 17. | 31 may. 2018 | $249.28 | 12.49% | 2,705.27 | 2.16% | |
| 18. | 30 jun. 2018 | $243.81 | -2.19% | 2,718.37 | 0.48% | |
| 19. | 31 jul. 2018 | $244.68 | 0.36% | 2,816.29 | 3.60% | |
| 20. | 31 ago. 2018 | $263.51 | 7.70% | 2,901.52 | 3.03% | |
| 21. | 30 sept. 2018 | $269.95 | 2.44% | 2,913.98 | 0.43% | |
| 22. | 31 oct. 2018 | $245.76 | -8.96% | 2,711.74 | -6.94% | |
| 23. | 30 nov. 2018 | $250.89 | 2.09% | 2,760.17 | 1.79% | |
| 24. | 31 dic. 2018 | $226.24 | -9.83% | 2,506.85 | -9.18% | |
| 25. | 31 ene. 2019 | $247.82 | 9.54% | 2,704.10 | 7.87% | |
| 26. | 28 feb. 2019 | $262.50 | 5.92% | 2,784.49 | 2.97% | |
| 27. | 31 mar. 2019 | $266.49 | 1.52% | 2,834.40 | 1.79% | |
| 28. | 30 abr. 2019 | $289.25 | 8.54% | 2,945.83 | 3.93% | |
| 29. | 31 may. 2019 | $270.90 | -6.34% | 2,752.06 | -6.58% | |
| 30. | 30 jun. 2019 | $294.65 | 8.77% | 2,941.76 | 6.89% | |
| 31. | 31 jul. 2019 | $298.86 | 1.43% | 2,980.38 | 1.31% | |
| 32. | 31 ago. 2019 | $284.51 | -4.80% | 2,926.46 | -1.81% | |
| 33. | 30 sept. 2019 | $276.25 | -2.90% | 2,976.74 | 1.72% | |
| 34. | 31 oct. 2019 | $277.93 | 0.61% | 3,037.56 | 2.04% | |
| 35. | 30 nov. 2019 | $309.53 | 11.37% | 3,140.98 | 3.40% | |
| 36. | 31 dic. 2019 | $329.81 | 6.55% | 3,230.78 | 2.86% | |
| 37. | 31 ene. 2020 | $351.14 | 6.47% | 3,225.52 | -0.16% | |
| 38. | 29 feb. 2020 | $345.12 | -1.71% | 2,954.22 | -8.41% | |
| 39. | 31 mar. 2020 | $318.24 | -7.79% | 2,584.59 | -12.51% | |
| 40. | 30 abr. 2020 | $353.64 | 11.12% | 2,912.43 | 12.68% | |
| 41. | 31 may. 2020 | $386.60 | 9.32% | 3,044.31 | 4.53% | |
| 42. | 30 jun. 2020 | $435.31 | 12.60% | 3,100.29 | 1.84% | |
| 43. | 31 jul. 2020 | $444.32 | 2.07% | 3,271.12 | 5.51% | |
| 44. | 31 ago. 2020 | $513.39 | 15.55% | 3,500.31 | 7.01% | |
| 45. | 30 sept. 2020 | $490.43 | -4.47% | 3,363.00 | -3.92% | |
| 46. | 31 oct. 2020 | $447.10 | -8.84% | 3,269.96 | -2.77% | |
| 47. | 30 nov. 2020 | $478.47 | 7.02% | 3,621.63 | 10.75% | |
| 48. | 31 dic. 2020 | $500.12 | 4.52% | 3,756.07 | 3.71% | |
| 49. | 31 ene. 2021 | $458.77 | -8.27% | 3,714.24 | -1.11% | |
| 50. | 28 feb. 2021 | $459.67 | 0.20% | 3,811.15 | 2.61% | |
| 51. | 31 mar. 2021 | $475.37 | 3.42% | 3,972.89 | 4.24% | |
| 52. | 30 abr. 2021 | $508.34 | 6.94% | 4,181.17 | 5.24% | |
| 53. | 31 may. 2021 | $504.58 | -0.74% | 4,204.11 | 0.55% | |
| 54. | 30 jun. 2021 | $585.64 | 16.06% | 4,297.50 | 2.22% | |
| 55. | 31 jul. 2021 | $621.63 | 6.15% | 4,395.26 | 2.27% | |
| 56. | 31 ago. 2021 | $663.70 | 6.77% | 4,522.68 | 2.90% | |
| 57. | 30 sept. 2021 | $575.72 | -13.26% | 4,307.54 | -4.76% | |
| 58. | 31 oct. 2021 | $650.36 | 12.96% | 4,605.38 | 6.91% | |
| 59. | 30 nov. 2021 | $669.85 | 3.00% | 4,567.00 | -0.83% | |
| 60. | 31 dic. 2021 | $567.06 | -15.35% | 4,766.18 | 4.36% | |
| 61. | 31 ene. 2022 | $534.30 | -5.78% | 4,515.55 | -5.26% | |
| 62. | 28 feb. 2022 | $467.68 | -12.47% | 4,373.94 | -3.14% | |
| 63. | 31 mar. 2022 | $455.62 | -2.58% | 4,530.41 | 3.58% | |
| 64. | 30 abr. 2022 | $395.95 | -13.10% | 4,131.93 | -8.80% | |
| 65. | 31 may. 2022 | $416.48 | 5.18% | 4,132.15 | 0.01% | |
| 66. | 30 jun. 2022 | $366.06 | -12.11% | 3,785.38 | -8.39% | |
| 67. | 31 jul. 2022 | $410.12 | 12.04% | 4,130.29 | 9.11% | |
| 68. | 31 ago. 2022 | $373.44 | -8.94% | 3,955.00 | -4.24% | |
| 69. | 30 sept. 2022 | $275.20 | -26.31% | 3,585.62 | -9.34% | |
| 70. | 31 oct. 2022 | $318.50 | 15.73% | 3,871.98 | 7.99% | |
| 71. | 30 nov. 2022 | $344.93 | 8.30% | 4,080.11 | 5.38% | |
| Promedio (R): | 2.10% | 0.97% | ||||
| Desviación estándar: | 8.65% | 4.91% | ||||
Mostrar todo
1 Datos en US$ por acción ordinaria, ajustados por divisiones y dividendos de acciones.
2 Tasa de rendimiento de las acciones ordinarias de ADBE durante el período t.
3 Tasa de rendimiento del S&P 500 (el proxy de la cartera de mercado) durante el período t.
Varianza y covarianza
Adobe Inc., cálculo de la varianza y covarianza de los rendimientos
| t | Fecha | RADBE,t | RS&P 500,t | (RADBE,t–RADBE)2 | (RS&P 500,t–RS&P 500)2 | (RADBE,t–RADBE)×(RS&P 500,t–RS&P 500) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | 31 ene. 2017 | 10.13% | 1.79% | 64.57 | 0.67 | 6.58 |
| 2. | 28 feb. 2017 | 4.37% | 3.72% | 5.19 | 7.57 | 6.27 |
| 3. | 31 mar. 2017 | 9.96% | -0.04% | 61.89 | 1.02 | -7.93 |
| . | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| . | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| . | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| 70. | 31 oct. 2022 | 15.73% | 7.99% | 186.00 | 49.24 | 95.70 |
| 71. | 30 nov. 2022 | 8.30% | 5.38% | 38.47 | 19.42 | 27.33 |
| Total (Σ): | 5,232.62 | 1,688.51 | 2,124.77 | |||
| t | Fecha | RADBE,t | RS&P 500,t | (RADBE,t–RADBE)2 | (RS&P 500,t–RS&P 500)2 | (RADBE,t–RADBE)×(RS&P 500,t–RS&P 500) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | 31 ene. 2017 | 10.13% | 1.79% | 64.57 | 0.67 | 6.58 |
| 2. | 28 feb. 2017 | 4.37% | 3.72% | 5.19 | 7.57 | 6.27 |
| 3. | 31 mar. 2017 | 9.96% | -0.04% | 61.89 | 1.02 | -7.93 |
| 4. | 30 abr. 2017 | 2.77% | 0.91% | 0.46 | 0.00 | -0.04 |
| 5. | 31 may. 2017 | 6.07% | 1.16% | 15.81 | 0.04 | 0.75 |
| 6. | 30 jun. 2017 | -0.30% | 0.48% | 5.72 | 0.24 | 1.17 |
| 7. | 31 jul. 2017 | 3.57% | 1.93% | 2.17 | 0.93 | 1.42 |
| 8. | 31 ago. 2017 | 5.92% | 0.05% | 14.61 | 0.84 | -3.50 |
| 9. | 30 sept. 2017 | -3.85% | 1.93% | 35.40 | 0.92 | -5.72 |
| 10. | 31 oct. 2017 | 17.42% | 2.22% | 234.68 | 1.56 | 19.15 |
| 11. | 30 nov. 2017 | 3.60% | 2.81% | 2.27 | 3.38 | 2.77 |
| 12. | 31 dic. 2017 | -3.43% | 0.98% | 30.57 | 0.00 | -0.08 |
| 13. | 31 ene. 2018 | 13.99% | 5.62% | 141.52 | 21.61 | 55.31 |
| 14. | 28 feb. 2018 | 4.69% | -3.89% | 6.73 | 23.66 | -12.62 |
| 15. | 31 mar. 2018 | 3.32% | -2.69% | 1.51 | 13.38 | -4.49 |
| 16. | 30 abr. 2018 | 2.55% | 0.27% | 0.21 | 0.49 | -0.32 |
| 17. | 31 may. 2018 | 12.49% | 2.16% | 108.06 | 1.42 | 12.39 |
| 18. | 30 jun. 2018 | -2.19% | 0.48% | 18.41 | 0.23 | 2.08 |
| 19. | 31 jul. 2018 | 0.36% | 3.60% | 3.02 | 6.93 | -4.58 |
| 20. | 31 ago. 2018 | 7.70% | 3.03% | 31.36 | 4.23 | 11.52 |
| 21. | 30 sept. 2018 | 2.44% | 0.43% | 0.12 | 0.29 | -0.19 |
| 22. | 31 oct. 2018 | -8.96% | -6.94% | 122.25 | 62.56 | 87.45 |
| 23. | 30 nov. 2018 | 2.09% | 1.79% | 0.00 | 0.67 | -0.01 |
| 24. | 31 dic. 2018 | -9.83% | -9.18% | 142.11 | 102.95 | 120.96 |
| 25. | 31 ene. 2019 | 9.54% | 7.87% | 55.39 | 47.60 | 51.35 |
| 26. | 28 feb. 2019 | 5.92% | 2.97% | 14.65 | 4.02 | 7.67 |
| 27. | 31 mar. 2019 | 1.52% | 1.79% | 0.33 | 0.68 | -0.47 |
| 28. | 30 abr. 2019 | 8.54% | 3.93% | 41.54 | 8.78 | 19.09 |
| 29. | 31 may. 2019 | -6.34% | -6.58% | 71.23 | 56.95 | 63.69 |
| 30. | 30 jun. 2019 | 8.77% | 6.89% | 44.51 | 35.09 | 39.52 |
| 31. | 31 jul. 2019 | 1.43% | 1.31% | 0.44 | 0.12 | -0.23 |
| 32. | 31 ago. 2019 | -4.80% | -1.81% | 47.57 | 7.72 | 19.16 |
| 33. | 30 sept. 2019 | -2.90% | 1.72% | 24.99 | 0.56 | -3.75 |
| 34. | 31 oct. 2019 | 0.61% | 2.04% | 2.21 | 1.15 | -1.60 |
| 35. | 30 nov. 2019 | 11.37% | 3.40% | 86.01 | 5.93 | 22.59 |
| 36. | 31 dic. 2019 | 6.55% | 2.86% | 19.86 | 3.57 | 8.42 |
| 37. | 31 ene. 2020 | 6.47% | -0.16% | 19.11 | 1.28 | -4.95 |
| 38. | 29 feb. 2020 | -1.71% | -8.41% | 14.52 | 87.98 | 35.74 |
| 39. | 31 mar. 2020 | -7.79% | -12.51% | 97.70 | 181.73 | 133.25 |
| 40. | 30 abr. 2020 | 11.12% | 12.68% | 81.50 | 137.25 | 105.77 |
| 41. | 31 may. 2020 | 9.32% | 4.53% | 52.19 | 12.67 | 25.71 |
| 42. | 30 jun. 2020 | 12.60% | 1.84% | 110.33 | 0.76 | 9.14 |
| 43. | 31 jul. 2020 | 2.07% | 5.51% | 0.00 | 20.62 | -0.12 |
| 44. | 31 ago. 2020 | 15.55% | 7.01% | 180.88 | 36.45 | 81.20 |
| 45. | 30 sept. 2020 | -4.47% | -3.92% | 43.14 | 23.93 | 32.13 |
| 46. | 31 oct. 2020 | -8.84% | -2.77% | 119.49 | 13.95 | 40.83 |
| 47. | 30 nov. 2020 | 7.02% | 10.75% | 24.21 | 95.76 | 48.15 |
| 48. | 31 dic. 2020 | 4.52% | 3.71% | 5.90 | 7.53 | 6.66 |
| 49. | 31 ene. 2021 | -8.27% | -1.11% | 107.41 | 4.34 | 21.58 |
| 50. | 28 feb. 2021 | 0.20% | 2.61% | 3.61 | 2.69 | -3.12 |
| 51. | 31 mar. 2021 | 3.42% | 4.24% | 1.74 | 10.73 | 4.32 |
| 52. | 30 abr. 2021 | 6.94% | 5.24% | 23.42 | 18.26 | 20.68 |
| 53. | 31 may. 2021 | -0.74% | 0.55% | 8.04 | 0.18 | 1.19 |
| 54. | 30 jun. 2021 | 16.06% | 2.22% | 195.13 | 1.57 | 17.50 |
| 55. | 31 jul. 2021 | 6.15% | 2.27% | 16.40 | 1.71 | 5.29 |
| 56. | 31 ago. 2021 | 6.77% | 2.90% | 21.83 | 3.73 | 9.02 |
| 57. | 30 sept. 2021 | -13.26% | -4.76% | 235.68 | 32.79 | 87.90 |
| 58. | 31 oct. 2021 | 12.96% | 6.91% | 118.13 | 35.35 | 64.62 |
| 59. | 30 nov. 2021 | 3.00% | -0.83% | 0.81 | 3.25 | -1.62 |
| 60. | 31 dic. 2021 | -15.35% | 4.36% | 304.19 | 11.51 | -59.17 |
| 61. | 31 ene. 2022 | -5.78% | -5.26% | 61.98 | 38.78 | 49.03 |
| 62. | 28 feb. 2022 | -12.47% | -3.14% | 212.12 | 16.85 | 59.79 |
| 63. | 31 mar. 2022 | -2.58% | 3.58% | 21.85 | 6.80 | -12.19 |
| 64. | 30 abr. 2022 | -13.10% | -8.80% | 230.80 | 95.35 | 148.35 |
| 65. | 31 may. 2022 | 5.18% | 0.01% | 9.54 | 0.93 | -2.98 |
| 66. | 30 jun. 2022 | -12.11% | -8.39% | 201.70 | 87.63 | 132.94 |
| 67. | 31 jul. 2022 | 12.04% | 9.11% | 98.81 | 66.30 | 80.94 |
| 68. | 31 ago. 2022 | -8.94% | -4.24% | 121.87 | 27.17 | 57.55 |
| 69. | 30 sept. 2022 | -26.31% | -9.34% | 806.71 | 106.27 | 292.79 |
| 70. | 31 oct. 2022 | 15.73% | 7.99% | 186.00 | 49.24 | 95.70 |
| 71. | 30 nov. 2022 | 8.30% | 5.38% | 38.47 | 19.42 | 27.33 |
| Total (Σ): | 5,232.62 | 1,688.51 | 2,124.77 | |||
Mostrar todo
VarianzaADBE = Σ(RADBE,t–RADBE)2 ÷ (71 – 1)
= 5,232.62 ÷ (71 – 1)
= 74.75
VarianzaS&P 500 = Σ(RS&P 500,t–RS&P 500)2 ÷ (71 – 1)
= 1,688.51 ÷ (71 – 1)
= 24.12
CovarianzaADBE, S&P 500 = Σ(RADBE,t–RADBE)×(RS&P 500,t–RS&P 500) ÷ (71 – 1)
= 2,124.77 ÷ (71 – 1)
= 30.35
Estimación sistemática del riesgo (β)
| VarianzaADBE | 74.75 |
| VarianzaS&P 500 | 24.12 |
| CovarianzaADBE, S&P 500 | 30.35 |
| Coeficiente de correlaciónADBE, S&P 5001 | 0.71 |
| βADBE2 | 1.26 |
| αADBE3 | 0.88% |
Cálculos
1 Coeficiente de correlaciónADBE, S&P 500
= CovarianzaADBE, S&P 500 ÷ (Desviación estándarADBE × Desviación estándarS&P 500)
= 30.35 ÷ (8.65% × 4.91%)
= 0.71
2 βADBE
= CovarianzaADBE, S&P 500 ÷ VarianzaS&P 500
= 30.35 ÷ 24.12
= 1.26
3 αADBE
= PromedioADBE – βADBE × PromedioS&P 500
= 2.10% – 1.26 × 0.97%
= 0.88%
Tasa de rendimiento esperada
| Suposiciones | ||
| Tasa de rendimiento de LT Treasury Composite1 | RF | 4.37% |
| Tasa de rendimiento esperada en la cartera de mercado2 | E(RM) | 13.31% |
| Riesgo sistemático de Adobe acciones ordinarias | βADBE | 1.26 |
| Tasa de rendimiento esperada de las acciones ordinarias de Adobe3 | E(RADBE) | 15.61% |
1 Promedio no ponderado de los rendimientos de las ofertas de todos los bonos del Tesoro de los Estados Unidos de cupón fijo en circulación que no vencen ni se pueden exigir en menos de 10 años (proxy de tasa de rendimiento libre de riesgo).
3 E(RADBE) = RF + βADBE [E(RM) – RF]
= 4.37% + 1.26 [13.31% – 4.37%]
= 15.61%