Modelo de fijación de precios de activos de capital (CAPM)
El modelo de fijación de precios de activos de capital (CAPM, por sus siglas en inglés) indica cuál debería ser la tasa de rendimiento esperada o requerida en activos de riesgo como las acciones ordinarias de FIS.
Tasas de retorno
Fidelity National Information Services Inc., tasas mensuales de retorno
| Fidelity National Information Services Inc. (FIS) | Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| t | Fecha | PrecioFIS,t1 | DividendoFIS,t1 | RFIS,t2 | PrecioS&P 500,t | RS&P 500,t3 |
| 31 ene. 2018 | $102.36 | 2,823.81 | ||||
| 1. | 28 feb. 2018 | $97.18 | -5.06% | 2,713.83 | -3.89% | |
| 2. | 31 mar. 2018 | $96.30 | $0.32 | -0.58% | 2,640.87 | -2.69% |
| 3. | 30 abr. 2018 | $94.97 | -1.38% | 2,648.05 | 0.27% | |
| . | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| . | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| . | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| 58. | 30 nov. 2022 | $72.58 | -12.54% | 4,080.11 | 5.38% | |
| 59. | 31 dic. 2022 | $67.85 | $0.47 | -5.87% | 3,839.50 | -5.90% |
| Promedio (R): | -0.25% | 0.67% | ||||
| Desviación estándar: | 7.99% | 5.40% | ||||
| Fidelity National Information Services Inc. (FIS) | Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| t | Fecha | PrecioFIS,t1 | DividendoFIS,t1 | RFIS,t2 | PrecioS&P 500,t | RS&P 500,t3 |
| 31 ene. 2018 | $102.36 | 2,823.81 | ||||
| 1. | 28 feb. 2018 | $97.18 | -5.06% | 2,713.83 | -3.89% | |
| 2. | 31 mar. 2018 | $96.30 | $0.32 | -0.58% | 2,640.87 | -2.69% |
| 3. | 30 abr. 2018 | $94.97 | -1.38% | 2,648.05 | 0.27% | |
| 4. | 31 may. 2018 | $102.22 | 7.63% | 2,705.27 | 2.16% | |
| 5. | 30 jun. 2018 | $106.03 | $0.32 | 4.04% | 2,718.37 | 0.48% |
| 6. | 31 jul. 2018 | $103.13 | -2.74% | 2,816.29 | 3.60% | |
| 7. | 31 ago. 2018 | $108.17 | 4.89% | 2,901.52 | 3.03% | |
| 8. | 30 sept. 2018 | $109.07 | $0.32 | 1.13% | 2,913.98 | 0.43% |
| 9. | 31 oct. 2018 | $104.10 | -4.56% | 2,711.74 | -6.94% | |
| 10. | 30 nov. 2018 | $107.95 | 3.70% | 2,760.17 | 1.79% | |
| 11. | 31 dic. 2018 | $102.55 | $0.32 | -4.71% | 2,506.85 | -9.18% |
| 12. | 31 ene. 2019 | $104.53 | 1.93% | 2,704.10 | 7.87% | |
| 13. | 28 feb. 2019 | $108.15 | 3.46% | 2,784.49 | 2.97% | |
| 14. | 31 mar. 2019 | $113.10 | $0.35 | 4.90% | 2,834.40 | 1.79% |
| 15. | 30 abr. 2019 | $115.93 | 2.50% | 2,945.83 | 3.93% | |
| 16. | 31 may. 2019 | $120.30 | 3.77% | 2,752.06 | -6.58% | |
| 17. | 30 jun. 2019 | $122.68 | $0.35 | 2.27% | 2,941.76 | 6.89% |
| 18. | 31 jul. 2019 | $133.25 | 8.62% | 2,980.38 | 1.31% | |
| 19. | 31 ago. 2019 | $136.22 | 2.23% | 2,926.46 | -1.81% | |
| 20. | 30 sept. 2019 | $132.76 | $0.35 | -2.28% | 2,976.74 | 1.72% |
| 21. | 31 oct. 2019 | $131.76 | -0.75% | 3,037.56 | 2.04% | |
| 22. | 30 nov. 2019 | $138.15 | 4.85% | 3,140.98 | 3.40% | |
| 23. | 31 dic. 2019 | $139.09 | $0.35 | 0.93% | 3,230.78 | 2.86% |
| 24. | 31 ene. 2020 | $143.66 | 3.29% | 3,225.52 | -0.16% | |
| 25. | 29 feb. 2020 | $139.72 | -2.74% | 2,954.22 | -8.41% | |
| 26. | 31 mar. 2020 | $121.64 | $0.35 | -12.69% | 2,584.59 | -12.51% |
| 27. | 30 abr. 2020 | $131.89 | 8.43% | 2,912.43 | 12.68% | |
| 28. | 31 may. 2020 | $138.83 | 5.26% | 3,044.31 | 4.53% | |
| 29. | 30 jun. 2020 | $134.09 | $0.35 | -3.16% | 3,100.29 | 1.84% |
| 30. | 31 jul. 2020 | $146.31 | 9.11% | 3,271.12 | 5.51% | |
| 31. | 31 ago. 2020 | $150.85 | 3.10% | 3,500.31 | 7.01% | |
| 32. | 30 sept. 2020 | $147.21 | $0.35 | -2.18% | 3,363.00 | -3.92% |
| 33. | 31 oct. 2020 | $124.59 | -15.37% | 3,269.96 | -2.77% | |
| 34. | 30 nov. 2020 | $148.41 | 19.12% | 3,621.63 | 10.75% | |
| 35. | 31 dic. 2020 | $141.46 | $0.35 | -4.45% | 3,756.07 | 3.71% |
| 36. | 31 ene. 2021 | $123.46 | -12.72% | 3,714.24 | -1.11% | |
| 37. | 28 feb. 2021 | $138.00 | 11.78% | 3,811.15 | 2.61% | |
| 38. | 31 mar. 2021 | $140.61 | $0.39 | 2.17% | 3,972.89 | 4.24% |
| 39. | 30 abr. 2021 | $152.90 | 8.74% | 4,181.17 | 5.24% | |
| 40. | 31 may. 2021 | $148.98 | -2.56% | 4,204.11 | 0.55% | |
| 41. | 30 jun. 2021 | $141.67 | $0.39 | -4.64% | 4,297.50 | 2.22% |
| 42. | 31 jul. 2021 | $149.05 | 5.21% | 4,395.26 | 2.27% | |
| 43. | 31 ago. 2021 | $127.77 | -14.28% | 4,522.68 | 2.90% | |
| 44. | 30 sept. 2021 | $121.68 | $0.39 | -4.46% | 4,307.54 | -4.76% |
| 45. | 31 oct. 2021 | $110.74 | -8.99% | 4,605.38 | 6.91% | |
| 46. | 30 nov. 2021 | $104.50 | -5.63% | 4,567.00 | -0.83% | |
| 47. | 31 dic. 2021 | $109.15 | $0.39 | 4.82% | 4,766.18 | 4.36% |
| 48. | 31 ene. 2022 | $119.92 | 9.87% | 4,515.55 | -5.26% | |
| 49. | 28 feb. 2022 | $95.23 | -20.59% | 4,373.94 | -3.14% | |
| 50. | 31 mar. 2022 | $100.42 | $0.47 | 5.94% | 4,530.41 | 3.58% |
| 51. | 30 abr. 2022 | $99.15 | -1.26% | 4,131.93 | -8.80% | |
| 52. | 31 may. 2022 | $104.50 | 5.40% | 4,132.15 | 0.01% | |
| 53. | 30 jun. 2022 | $91.67 | $0.47 | -11.83% | 3,785.38 | -8.39% |
| 54. | 31 jul. 2022 | $102.16 | 11.44% | 4,130.29 | 9.11% | |
| 55. | 31 ago. 2022 | $91.37 | -10.56% | 3,955.00 | -4.24% | |
| 56. | 30 sept. 2022 | $75.57 | $0.47 | -16.78% | 3,585.62 | -9.34% |
| 57. | 31 oct. 2022 | $82.99 | 9.82% | 3,871.98 | 7.99% | |
| 58. | 30 nov. 2022 | $72.58 | -12.54% | 4,080.11 | 5.38% | |
| 59. | 31 dic. 2022 | $67.85 | $0.47 | -5.87% | 3,839.50 | -5.90% |
| Promedio (R): | -0.25% | 0.67% | ||||
| Desviación estándar: | 7.99% | 5.40% | ||||
Mostrar todo
1 Datos en dólares estadounidenses por acción ordinaria, ajustados por divisiones y dividendos de acciones.
2 Tasa de rendimiento de las acciones ordinarias de FIS durante el período t.
3 Tasa de rendimiento del S&P 500 (el proxy de la cartera de mercado) durante el período t.
Varianza y covarianza
Fidelity National Information Services Inc., cálculo de la varianza y covarianza de los rendimientos
| t | Fecha | RFIS,t | RS&P 500,t | (RFIS,t–RFIS)2 | (RS&P 500,t–RS&P 500)2 | (RFIS,t–RFIS)×(RS&P 500,t–RS&P 500) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | 28 feb. 2018 | -5.06% | -3.89% | 23.10 | 20.81 | 21.92 |
| 2. | 31 mar. 2018 | -0.58% | -2.69% | 0.10 | 11.26 | 1.08 |
| 3. | 30 abr. 2018 | -1.38% | 0.27% | 1.27 | 0.16 | 0.44 |
| . | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| . | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| . | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| 58. | 30 nov. 2022 | -12.54% | 5.38% | 151.02 | 22.17 | -57.87 |
| 59. | 31 dic. 2022 | -5.87% | -5.90% | 31.53 | 43.08 | 36.85 |
| Total (Σ): | 3,705.46 | 1,691.48 | 1,349.69 | |||
| t | Fecha | RFIS,t | RS&P 500,t | (RFIS,t–RFIS)2 | (RS&P 500,t–RS&P 500)2 | (RFIS,t–RFIS)×(RS&P 500,t–RS&P 500) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | 28 feb. 2018 | -5.06% | -3.89% | 23.10 | 20.81 | 21.92 |
| 2. | 31 mar. 2018 | -0.58% | -2.69% | 0.10 | 11.26 | 1.08 |
| 3. | 30 abr. 2018 | -1.38% | 0.27% | 1.27 | 0.16 | 0.44 |
| 4. | 31 may. 2018 | 7.63% | 2.16% | 62.23 | 2.23 | 11.79 |
| 5. | 30 jun. 2018 | 4.04% | 0.48% | 18.45 | 0.03 | -0.78 |
| 6. | 31 jul. 2018 | -2.74% | 3.60% | 6.15 | 8.62 | -7.28 |
| 7. | 31 ago. 2018 | 4.89% | 3.03% | 26.44 | 5.57 | 12.13 |
| 8. | 30 sept. 2018 | 1.13% | 0.43% | 1.91 | 0.06 | -0.33 |
| 9. | 31 oct. 2018 | -4.56% | -6.94% | 18.51 | 57.87 | 32.73 |
| 10. | 30 nov. 2018 | 3.70% | 1.79% | 15.63 | 1.25 | 4.42 |
| 11. | 31 dic. 2018 | -4.71% | -9.18% | 19.81 | 96.91 | 43.82 |
| 12. | 31 ene. 2019 | 1.93% | 7.87% | 4.78 | 51.87 | 15.74 |
| 13. | 28 feb. 2019 | 3.46% | 2.97% | 13.82 | 5.32 | 8.57 |
| 14. | 31 mar. 2019 | 4.90% | 1.79% | 26.58 | 1.27 | 5.80 |
| 15. | 30 abr. 2019 | 2.50% | 3.93% | 7.60 | 10.66 | 9.00 |
| 16. | 31 may. 2019 | 3.77% | -6.58% | 16.19 | 52.48 | -29.15 |
| 17. | 30 jun. 2019 | 2.27% | 6.89% | 6.37 | 38.77 | 15.71 |
| 18. | 31 jul. 2019 | 8.62% | 1.31% | 78.69 | 0.42 | 5.73 |
| 19. | 31 ago. 2019 | 2.23% | -1.81% | 6.17 | 6.13 | -6.15 |
| 20. | 30 sept. 2019 | -2.28% | 1.72% | 4.11 | 1.11 | -2.13 |
| 21. | 31 oct. 2019 | -0.75% | 2.04% | 0.25 | 1.89 | -0.69 |
| 22. | 30 nov. 2019 | 4.85% | 3.40% | 26.05 | 7.50 | 13.98 |
| 23. | 31 dic. 2019 | 0.93% | 2.86% | 1.41 | 4.81 | 2.61 |
| 24. | 31 ene. 2020 | 3.29% | -0.16% | 12.53 | 0.69 | -2.94 |
| 25. | 29 feb. 2020 | -2.74% | -8.41% | 6.19 | 82.40 | 22.59 |
| 26. | 31 mar. 2020 | -12.69% | -12.51% | 154.63 | 173.67 | 163.88 |
| 27. | 30 abr. 2020 | 8.43% | 12.68% | 75.36 | 144.43 | 104.33 |
| 28. | 31 may. 2020 | 5.26% | 4.53% | 30.43 | 14.91 | 21.30 |
| 29. | 30 jun. 2020 | -3.16% | 1.84% | 8.45 | 1.37 | -3.41 |
| 30. | 31 jul. 2020 | 9.11% | 5.51% | 87.76 | 23.46 | 45.37 |
| 31. | 31 ago. 2020 | 3.10% | 7.01% | 11.27 | 40.19 | 21.29 |
| 32. | 30 sept. 2020 | -2.18% | -3.92% | 3.71 | 21.06 | 8.84 |
| 33. | 31 oct. 2020 | -15.37% | -2.77% | 228.35 | 11.79 | 51.88 |
| 34. | 30 nov. 2020 | 19.12% | 10.75% | 375.32 | 101.77 | 195.44 |
| 35. | 31 dic. 2020 | -4.45% | 3.71% | 17.58 | 9.28 | -12.77 |
| 36. | 31 ene. 2021 | -12.72% | -1.11% | 155.50 | 3.17 | 22.20 |
| 37. | 28 feb. 2021 | 11.78% | 2.61% | 144.76 | 3.77 | 23.37 |
| 38. | 31 mar. 2021 | 2.17% | 4.24% | 5.90 | 12.80 | 8.69 |
| 39. | 30 abr. 2021 | 8.74% | 5.24% | 80.91 | 20.94 | 41.16 |
| 40. | 31 may. 2021 | -2.56% | 0.55% | 5.33 | 0.01 | 0.27 |
| 41. | 30 jun. 2021 | -4.64% | 2.22% | 19.28 | 2.42 | -6.83 |
| 42. | 31 jul. 2021 | 5.21% | 2.27% | 29.85 | 2.59 | 8.79 |
| 43. | 31 ago. 2021 | -14.28% | 2.90% | 196.63 | 4.98 | -31.30 |
| 44. | 30 sept. 2021 | -4.46% | -4.76% | 17.70 | 29.42 | 22.81 |
| 45. | 31 oct. 2021 | -8.99% | 6.91% | 76.32 | 39.03 | -54.58 |
| 46. | 30 nov. 2021 | -5.63% | -0.83% | 28.95 | 2.25 | 8.07 |
| 47. | 31 dic. 2021 | 4.82% | 4.36% | 25.78 | 13.65 | 18.76 |
| 48. | 31 ene. 2022 | 9.87% | -5.26% | 102.45 | 35.11 | -59.97 |
| 49. | 28 feb. 2022 | -20.59% | -3.14% | 413.48 | 14.46 | 77.32 |
| 50. | 31 mar. 2022 | 5.94% | 3.58% | 38.42 | 8.47 | 18.04 |
| 51. | 30 abr. 2022 | -1.26% | -8.80% | 1.02 | 89.54 | 9.56 |
| 52. | 31 may. 2022 | 5.40% | 0.01% | 31.93 | 0.44 | -3.74 |
| 53. | 30 jun. 2022 | -11.83% | -8.39% | 133.94 | 82.06 | 104.84 |
| 54. | 31 jul. 2022 | 11.44% | 9.11% | 136.84 | 71.32 | 98.79 |
| 55. | 31 ago. 2022 | -10.56% | -4.24% | 106.24 | 24.11 | 50.62 |
| 56. | 30 sept. 2022 | -16.78% | -9.34% | 273.02 | 100.12 | 165.34 |
| 57. | 31 oct. 2022 | 9.82% | 7.99% | 101.47 | 53.58 | 73.73 |
| 58. | 30 nov. 2022 | -12.54% | 5.38% | 151.02 | 22.17 | -57.87 |
| 59. | 31 dic. 2022 | -5.87% | -5.90% | 31.53 | 43.08 | 36.85 |
| Total (Σ): | 3,705.46 | 1,691.48 | 1,349.69 | |||
Mostrar todo
VarianzaFIS = Σ(RFIS,t–RFIS)2 ÷ (59 – 1)
= 3,705.46 ÷ (59 – 1)
= 63.89
VarianzaS&P 500 = Σ(RS&P 500,t–RS&P 500)2 ÷ (59 – 1)
= 1,691.48 ÷ (59 – 1)
= 29.16
CovarianzaFIS, S&P 500 = Σ(RFIS,t–RFIS)×(RS&P 500,t–RS&P 500) ÷ (59 – 1)
= 1,349.69 ÷ (59 – 1)
= 23.27
Estimación sistemática del riesgo (β)
| VarianzaFIS | 63.89 |
| VarianzaS&P 500 | 29.16 |
| CovarianzaFIS, S&P 500 | 23.27 |
| Coeficiente de correlaciónFIS, S&P 5001 | 0.54 |
| βFIS2 | 0.80 |
| αFIS3 | -0.79% |
Cálculos
1 Coeficiente de correlaciónFIS, S&P 500
= CovarianzaFIS, S&P 500 ÷ (Desviación estándarFIS × Desviación estándarS&P 500)
= 23.27 ÷ (7.99% × 5.40%)
= 0.54
2 βFIS
= CovarianzaFIS, S&P 500 ÷ VarianzaS&P 500
= 23.27 ÷ 29.16
= 0.80
3 αFIS
= PromedioFIS – βFIS × PromedioS&P 500
= -0.25% – 0.80 × 0.67%
= -0.79%
Tasa de rendimiento esperada
| Suposiciones | ||
| Tasa de rendimiento del LT Treasury Composite1 | RF | 4.79% |
| Tasa de rendimiento esperada de la cartera de mercado2 | E(RM) | 13.48% |
| Riesgo sistemático de FIS acciones ordinarias | βFIS | 0.80 |
| Tasa de rendimiento esperada de las acciones ordinarias de FIS3 | E(RFIS) | 11.72% |
1 Promedio no ponderado de los rendimientos de las ofertas de todos los bonos del Tesoro de EE. UU. con cupón fijo en circulación que no vencen ni son rescatables en menos de 10 años (proxy de tasa de rendimiento libre de riesgo).
3 E(RFIS) = RF + βFIS [E(RM) – RF]
= 4.79% + 0.80 [13.48% – 4.79%]
= 11.72%