Stock Analysis on Net

Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA)

Modelo de fijación de precios de activos de capital (CAPM) 

Microsoft Excel

El modelo de fijación de precios de activos de capital (CAPM, por sus siglas en inglés) indica cuál debería ser la tasa de rendimiento esperada o requerida en activos de riesgo como las acciones ordinarias de Tesla.


Tasas de retorno

Tesla Inc., tasas mensuales de retorno

Microsoft Excel
Tesla Inc. (TSLA) Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500)
t Fecha PrecioTSLA,t1 DividendoTSLA,t1 RTSLA,t2 PrecioS&P 500,t RS&P 500,t3
31 ene 2020 $43.37 3,225.52
1. 29 feb 2020 $44.53 2.67% 2,954.22 -8.41%
2. 31 mar 2020 $34.93 -21.56% 2,584.59 -12.51%
3. 30 abr 2020 $52.13 49.24% 2,912.43 12.68%
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
58. 30 nov 2024 $345.16 38.15% 6,032.38 5.73%
59. 31 dic 2024 $403.84 17.00% 5,881.63 -2.50%
Promedio (R): 5.87% 1.16%
Desviación estándar: 21.39% 5.28%
Tesla Inc. (TSLA) Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500)
t Fecha PrecioTSLA,t1 DividendoTSLA,t1 RTSLA,t2 PrecioS&P 500,t RS&P 500,t3
31 ene 2020 $43.37 3,225.52
1. 29 feb 2020 $44.53 2.67% 2,954.22 -8.41%
2. 31 mar 2020 $34.93 -21.56% 2,584.59 -12.51%
3. 30 abr 2020 $52.13 49.24% 2,912.43 12.68%
4. 31 may 2020 $55.67 6.79% 3,044.31 4.53%
5. 30 jun 2020 $71.99 29.32% 3,100.29 1.84%
6. 31 jul 2020 $95.38 32.49% 3,271.12 5.51%
7. 31 ago 2020 $166.11 74.16% 3,500.31 7.01%
8. 30 sept 2020 $143.00 -13.91% 3,363.00 -3.92%
9. 31 oct 2020 $129.35 -9.55% 3,269.96 -2.77%
10. 30 nov 2020 $189.20 46.27% 3,621.63 10.75%
11. 31 dic 2020 $235.22 24.32% 3,756.07 3.71%
12. 31 ene 2021 $264.51 12.45% 3,714.24 -1.11%
13. 28 feb 2021 $225.17 -14.87% 3,811.15 2.61%
14. 31 mar 2021 $222.64 -1.12% 3,972.89 4.24%
15. 30 abr 2021 $236.48 6.22% 4,181.17 5.24%
16. 31 may 2021 $208.41 -11.87% 4,204.11 0.55%
17. 30 jun 2021 $226.57 8.71% 4,297.50 2.22%
18. 31 jul 2021 $229.07 1.10% 4,395.26 2.27%
19. 31 ago 2021 $245.24 7.06% 4,522.68 2.90%
20. 30 sept 2021 $258.49 5.40% 4,307.54 -4.76%
21. 31 oct 2021 $371.33 43.65% 4,605.38 6.91%
22. 30 nov 2021 $381.59 2.76% 4,567.00 -0.83%
23. 31 dic 2021 $352.26 -7.69% 4,766.18 4.36%
24. 31 ene 2022 $312.24 -11.36% 4,515.55 -5.26%
25. 28 feb 2022 $290.14 -7.08% 4,373.94 -3.14%
26. 31 mar 2022 $359.20 23.80% 4,530.41 3.58%
27. 30 abr 2022 $290.25 -19.20% 4,131.93 -8.80%
28. 31 may 2022 $252.75 -12.92% 4,132.15 0.01%
29. 30 jun 2022 $224.47 -11.19% 3,785.38 -8.39%
30. 31 jul 2022 $297.15 32.38% 4,130.29 9.11%
31. 31 ago 2022 $275.61 -7.25% 3,955.00 -4.24%
32. 30 sept 2022 $265.25 -3.76% 3,585.62 -9.34%
33. 31 oct 2022 $227.54 -14.22% 3,871.98 7.99%
34. 30 nov 2022 $194.70 -14.43% 4,080.11 5.38%
35. 31 dic 2022 $123.18 -36.73% 3,839.50 -5.90%
36. 31 ene 2023 $173.22 40.62% 4,076.60 6.18%
37. 28 feb 2023 $205.71 18.76% 3,970.15 -2.61%
38. 31 mar 2023 $207.46 0.85% 4,109.31 3.51%
39. 30 abr 2023 $164.31 -20.80% 4,169.48 1.46%
40. 31 may 2023 $203.93 24.11% 4,179.83 0.25%
41. 30 jun 2023 $261.77 28.36% 4,376.86 4.71%
42. 31 jul 2023 $267.43 2.16% 4,588.96 4.85%
43. 31 ago 2023 $258.08 -3.50% 4,507.66 -1.77%
44. 30 sept 2023 $250.22 -3.05% 4,288.05 -4.87%
45. 31 oct 2023 $200.84 -19.73% 4,193.80 -2.20%
46. 30 nov 2023 $240.08 19.54% 4,567.80 8.92%
47. 31 dic 2023 $248.48 3.50% 4,769.83 4.42%
48. 31 ene 2024 $187.29 -24.63% 4,845.65 1.59%
49. 29 feb 2024 $201.88 7.79% 5,096.27 5.17%
50. 31 mar 2024 $175.79 -12.92% 5,254.35 3.10%
51. 30 abr 2024 $183.28 4.26% 5,035.69 -4.16%
52. 31 may 2024 $178.08 -2.84% 5,277.51 4.80%
53. 30 jun 2024 $197.88 11.12% 5,460.48 3.47%
54. 31 jul 2024 $232.07 17.28% 5,522.30 1.13%
55. 31 ago 2024 $214.11 -7.74% 5,648.40 2.28%
56. 30 sept 2024 $261.63 22.19% 5,762.48 2.02%
57. 31 oct 2024 $249.85 -4.50% 5,705.45 -0.99%
58. 30 nov 2024 $345.16 38.15% 6,032.38 5.73%
59. 31 dic 2024 $403.84 17.00% 5,881.63 -2.50%
Promedio (R): 5.87% 1.16%
Desviación estándar: 21.39% 5.28%

Mostrar todo

1 Datos en dólares estadounidenses por acción ordinaria, ajustados por divisiones y dividendos de acciones.

2 Tasa de rendimiento de las acciones ordinarias de TSLA durante el período t.

3 Tasa de rendimiento del S&P 500 (el proxy de la cartera de mercado) durante el período t.


Varianza y covarianza

Tesla Inc., cálculo de la varianza y covarianza de los rendimientos

Microsoft Excel
t Fecha RTSLA,t RS&P 500,t (RTSLA,tRTSLA)2 (RS&P 500,tRS&P 500)2 (RTSLA,tRTSLA)×(RS&P 500,tRS&P 500)
1. 29 feb 2020 2.67% -8.41% 10.18 91.63 30.55
2. 31 mar 2020 -21.56% -12.51% 752.10 186.96 374.98
3. 30 abr 2020 49.24% 12.68% 1,881.42 132.78 499.82
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
58. 30 nov 2024 38.15% 5.73% 1,042.05 20.87 147.49
59. 31 dic 2024 17.00% -2.50% 123.98 13.40 -40.76
Total (Σ): 26,540.90 1,618.62 3,763.71
t Fecha RTSLA,t RS&P 500,t (RTSLA,tRTSLA)2 (RS&P 500,tRS&P 500)2 (RTSLA,tRTSLA)×(RS&P 500,tRS&P 500)
1. 29 feb 2020 2.67% -8.41% 10.18 91.63 30.55
2. 31 mar 2020 -21.56% -12.51% 752.10 186.96 374.98
3. 30 abr 2020 49.24% 12.68% 1,881.42 132.78 499.82
4. 31 may 2020 6.79% 4.53% 0.86 11.34 3.11
5. 30 jun 2020 29.32% 1.84% 549.88 0.46 15.89
6. 31 jul 2020 32.49% 5.51% 708.87 18.91 115.79
7. 31 ago 2020 74.16% 7.01% 4,663.52 34.17 399.17
8. 30 sept 2020 -13.91% -3.92% 391.19 25.85 100.56
9. 31 oct 2020 -9.55% -2.77% 237.51 15.43 60.53
10. 30 nov 2020 46.27% 10.75% 1,632.47 92.03 387.61
11. 31 dic 2020 24.32% 3.71% 340.68 6.51 47.08
12. 31 ene 2021 12.45% -1.11% 43.38 5.18 -14.98
13. 28 feb 2021 -14.87% 2.61% 430.10 2.10 -30.03
14. 31 mar 2021 -1.12% 4.24% 48.85 9.50 -21.55
15. 30 abr 2021 6.22% 5.24% 0.12 16.66 1.43
16. 31 may 2021 -11.87% 0.55% 314.56 0.38 10.87
17. 30 jun 2021 8.71% 2.22% 8.11 1.12 3.02
18. 31 jul 2021 1.10% 2.27% 22.68 1.24 -5.30
19. 31 ago 2021 7.06% 2.90% 1.42 3.02 2.07
20. 30 sept 2021 5.40% -4.76% 0.21 35.02 2.74
21. 31 oct 2021 43.65% 6.91% 1,427.90 33.10 217.40
22. 30 nov 2021 2.76% -0.83% 9.63 3.98 6.19
23. 31 dic 2021 -7.69% 4.36% 183.66 10.24 -43.37
24. 31 ene 2022 -11.36% -5.26% 296.77 41.21 110.59
25. 28 feb 2022 -7.08% -3.14% 167.54 18.47 55.62
26. 31 mar 2022 23.80% 3.58% 321.71 5.84 43.33
27. 30 abr 2022 -19.20% -8.80% 628.08 99.14 249.54
28. 31 may 2022 -12.92% 0.01% 352.91 1.34 21.72
29. 30 jun 2022 -11.19% -8.39% 290.87 91.26 162.93
30. 31 jul 2022 32.38% 9.11% 702.91 63.21 210.78
31. 31 ago 2022 -7.25% -4.24% 172.00 29.22 70.89
32. 30 sept 2022 -3.76% -9.34% 92.64 110.27 101.07
33. 31 oct 2022 -14.22% 7.99% 403.32 46.58 -137.07
34. 30 nov 2022 -14.43% 5.38% 412.04 17.76 -85.54
35. 31 dic 2022 -36.73% -5.90% 1,814.71 49.82 300.68
36. 31 ene 2023 40.62% 6.18% 1,208.08 25.14 174.27
37. 28 feb 2023 18.76% -2.61% 166.16 14.23 -48.63
38. 31 mar 2023 0.85% 3.51% 25.15 5.49 -11.76
39. 30 abr 2023 -20.80% 1.46% 711.03 0.09 -8.08
40. 31 may 2023 24.11% 0.25% 332.95 0.83 -16.66
41. 30 jun 2023 28.36% 4.71% 506.10 12.62 79.92
42. 31 jul 2023 2.16% 4.85% 13.72 13.58 -13.65
43. 31 ago 2023 -3.50% -1.77% 87.65 8.60 27.46
44. 30 sept 2023 -3.05% -4.87% 79.42 36.40 53.77
45. 31 oct 2023 -19.73% -2.20% 655.39 11.28 86.00
46. 30 nov 2023 19.54% 8.92% 186.92 60.17 106.05
47. 31 dic 2023 3.50% 4.42% 5.60 10.64 -7.72
48. 31 ene 2024 -24.63% 1.59% 929.75 0.18 -13.06
49. 29 feb 2024 7.79% 5.17% 3.70 16.09 7.72
50. 31 mar 2024 -12.92% 3.10% 353.05 3.77 -36.46
51. 30 abr 2024 4.26% -4.16% 2.58 28.33 8.54
52. 31 may 2024 -2.84% 4.80% 75.75 13.26 -31.69
53. 30 jun 2024 11.12% 3.47% 27.59 5.32 12.11
54. 31 jul 2024 17.28% 1.13% 130.24 0.00 -0.33
55. 31 ago 2024 -7.74% 2.28% 185.10 1.26 -15.27
56. 30 sept 2024 22.19% 2.02% 266.61 0.74 14.02
57. 31 oct 2024 -4.50% -0.99% 107.51 4.63 22.30
58. 30 nov 2024 38.15% 5.73% 1,042.05 20.87 147.49
59. 31 dic 2024 17.00% -2.50% 123.98 13.40 -40.76
Total (Σ): 26,540.90 1,618.62 3,763.71

Mostrar todo

VarianzaTSLA = Σ(RTSLA,tRTSLA)2 ÷ (59 – 1)
= 26,540.90 ÷ (59 – 1)
= 457.60

VarianzaS&P 500 = Σ(RS&P 500,tRS&P 500)2 ÷ (59 – 1)
= 1,618.62 ÷ (59 – 1)
= 27.91

CovarianzaTSLA, S&P 500 = Σ(RTSLA,tRTSLA)×(RS&P 500,tRS&P 500) ÷ (59 – 1)
= 3,763.71 ÷ (59 – 1)
= 64.89


Estimación sistemática del riesgo (β)

Microsoft Excel
VarianzaTSLA 457.60
VarianzaS&P 500 27.91
CovarianzaTSLA, S&P 500 64.89
Coeficiente de correlaciónTSLA, S&P 5001 0.57
βTSLA2 2.33
αTSLA3 3.17%

Cálculos

1 Coeficiente de correlaciónTSLA, S&P 500
= CovarianzaTSLA, S&P 500 ÷ (Desviación estándarTSLA × Desviación estándarS&P 500)
= 64.89 ÷ (21.39% × 5.28%)
= 0.57

2 βTSLA
= CovarianzaTSLA, S&P 500 ÷ VarianzaS&P 500
= 64.89 ÷ 27.91
= 2.33

3 αTSLA
= PromedioTSLA – βTSLA × PromedioS&P 500
= 5.87%2.33 × 1.16%
= 3.17%


Tasa de rendimiento esperada

Microsoft Excel
Suposiciones
Tasa de rendimiento del LT Treasury Composite1 RF 4.91%
Tasa de rendimiento esperada de la cartera de mercado2 E(RM) 14.84%
Riesgo sistemático de Tesla acciones ordinarias βTSLA 2.33
 
Tasa de rendimiento esperada de las acciones ordinarias de Tesla3 E(RTSLA) 28.00%

1 Promedio no ponderado de los rendimientos de las ofertas de todos los bonos del Tesoro de EE. UU. con cupón fijo en circulación que no vencen ni son rescatables en menos de 10 años (proxy de tasa de rendimiento libre de riesgo).

2 Ver detalles »

3 E(RTSLA) = RF + βTSLA [E(RM) – RF]
= 4.91% + 2.33 [14.84%4.91%]
= 28.00%